THE DAILY MACRO BRIEF: New leadership at the Financial Stability Board, Fed rates, Jim Acosta…

11/20/2018 | 08:12 am

In a week's time, the position of Chairman of the Financial Stability Board will be vacant. The Vice President of the Fed is a candidate. According to a new survey, the chances of the Fed raising rates only twice in 2019 are increasing. Tomorrow, the European Commission will decide on Italy's fate regarding its 2019 budget.


A member of the Fed could take over the leadership of the Financial Stability Board. The term of office of the Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, Mark Carney (Governor of the BoE), expires on December 1. He could be replaced by the Vice President of the Federal Reserve, Randal Quarles, whose candidacy is supported by the Trump Administration. Its vice-president could be Klaas Knot, the governor of the Central Bank of the Netherlands. As a reminder, the Financial Stability Board is an institution created in 2009 with the aim of reforming financial regulation worldwide. The President is appointed for three years.

The Fed's monetary policy normalization rate could slow in 2019. According to economists interviewed by Reuters in a survey, the Fed is expected to raise its rates by a quarter of a percentage point (to 2.25%-2.50%) in December. Nevertheless, of 102 interviewees, only 54 still believe that three increases will take place next year. The others expect two increases, due to low inflation and recession expectations in the next two years (probability of 35%, compared to 30% in the previous survey).

Back in the House. The White House yesterday issued a new accreditation to CNN journalist Jim Acosta, after withdrawing it following a tense exchange with Donald Trump in early November.


The European Commission will issue its verdict tomorrow. The head of the overall strategy for the management company Muzinich & Co Fabrizio Pagani said in an interview that even if the European Commission were to open an excessive deficit disciplinary procedure against Italy, it would not apply severe economic sanctions to the third largest economy in the euro zone, as this would be "counterproductive to European interests". For his part, Italian Council Vice-President Luigi Di Maio believes that a solution can be found if Brussels does not remove "the (main) measures from the budget".

Romain Fournier
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