A MACRO MINUTE: Brexit or no Brexit, Mario Draghi before the European Parliament ...

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07/09/2018 | 11:53 am
Welcome back to our daily review of macroeconomic and geopolitical news impacting financial markets around the world. Since Saturday, several countries have been in the spotlight, especially the UK with its stormy Brexit negotiations. For once, the US does not get all the attention. Here are today's main events.


United Kingdom. Last Friday, Theresa May concluded a meeting with her ministers under good auspices, agreeing on a close trade relationship with the post-Brexit EU. But the minister in charge of Brexit, David Davis, did not intend to keep strong ties with the EU, considering that the country would be in a "weak position" to negotiate with Brussels. Therefore, he resigned yesterday, just a few hours before the presentation of Theresa May's project which she calls the "good Brexit" in front of the deputies.

Eurozone. Whilst the dollar is slightly falling against a basket of reference currencies (see chart below), Mario Draghi will speak today in front of the European Parliament from 1 p.m. Nothing extraordinary is on the agenda, except perhaps some indications on the date of the next refinancing rate increase which the market anticipates for the summer of 2019.


The Dollar Index continues to fall after several weeks of increase, with no strong trend at the moment (Source: Bloomberg)

Switzerland. Unemployment is at record lows since the beginning of the 2008 crisis! The figure was announced at 2.4% in late June just like in May and the number of registered unemployed fell by more than 20% in a year, especially among young people aged 15 to 24 (-23.9%).

Iran. On Saturday, Iran's oil minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh slammed Donald Trump and his tweets about oil. He accuses him of "destabilizing the market" and claims that "these days, the barrel price depends on the behavior of Mr. Trump". We can't say the opposite.

Turkey. Today, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will take an oath after his controversial re-election last month. Thanks to the constitutional reform that he has passed himself, he will have more powers: there is no more Prime Minister and he will have the possibility of dissolving the government or dismissing members of the civil service without the consent of the Parliament. He will announce the composition of his government tonight (16 ministers) after formalizing the dismissal of more than 18,000 officials yesterday.


Floriane Rousseaux
MarketScreener.com 2018
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