Delayed - 10/18 10:45:00 pm

The immobility persists

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09/12/2019 | 11:48 am
Opinion : Check out the trading range breakout 53 / 58 
Initiating a technical rebound since the beginning of the month, oil prices suddenly dropped on contact with relevant graphical elements, weighted by the reversal of Donald Trump’s position against Téran. The President of the United States would consider easing American sanctions against Iran, also anticipating the departure of his national security adviser, who was in favour of a hard line against Téran, John Bolton. This change in tone raises fears that Iran will gradually return to international markets, synonymous with an increase in global oil supply at a time when global demand is a major concern. This remains by far the main source of concern for the year, since its growth is regularly reviewed; The decline, both by OPEC, the U.S. Energy Agency (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Paradoxically, the many consecutive declines in weekly oil inventories in the United States seem to point to a healthier oil market environment. Nevertheless, it is important to take into account the effects of the significant decline in US crude oil imports, particularly those from Saudi Arabia, at its lowest level since the EIA compiled these data on a weekly basis since 2010.Historically, the United States has briefly become the world’s largest exporter of petroleum products (including refined products), ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. As such, the IEA has stated that these exports could grow further as the United States builds new export infrastructure. In this context, while OPEC calls for shared responsibility by all producing countries to stabilize oil prices towards more profitable levels, investors will be closely monitoring the evolution of shale barter production in the United States. More and more observers are predicting the end of the US shale eldorado, a part of which remains gangrenous due to high debt. Graphically, in daily data, WTI prices fluctuate horizontally between 53 and 58 USD. Indecision persists, as does the grouping of the different daily moving averages. It will thus be necessary to leave this zone of lateralisation in order to regain a more open dynamic. Our priority scenario remains a downward exit, which would free up potential for a decline towards $45.
Jordan Dufee
Zonebourse.com 2019
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